Let me preface this article with two examples of genuinely bad luck within the Pokémon TCG, both from UK Nats last year.
Remember me? mwhahaha
1. A player who went 6-1 in swiss with Dialgachomp endured his only loss when faced with a lone Unown Q start… against an opponent who ALSO had a lone Unown Q start. He failed to draw a second basic or one of his 15 (!) energy and was donked, though he went first.
2. While facing a Vilegar deck I was roundly beaten when I failed to draw a single Energy (of the 9 I run) after drawing 30 cards from my deck (with a combination of Uxies, Poke Drawer + and Unown R). By the time I drew an energy I had no real attackers and was 3 prizes down! (Though I had already guaranteed my place in top-cut).
Now let me say that luck is not that big a factor in the Pokémon TCG. It can’t be. Sami Sekkoum has top-cut at all but one Worlds Championship in goodness knows how many years, Chris Fulop has qualified for every Worlds ever held, Ness has won Worlds twice, Ross Cawthon has come second twice, my good friend Tommy Roberts wins tournaments on a regular basis etc etc etc. The point is that the best players are at the top year after year, format after format. This would not be possible if luck were an overriding factor.
This is not to suggest that luck plays no part in this game. We all know that luck plays a part; the cards you draw, who goes first, what ends up in your prizes, but the point I wish to make in this article is that luck is a much smaller element than people give it credit for and it is something that can be lessened and (almost) eliminated. There will always be some element of luck but I believe it can be reduced for the vast majority of players. So, let’s look at some ways of reducing the luck element.
Flippy Cards
When we first rotated to HGSS on I LOVED Dual Ball (flip two coins and search for one basic per heads) but the problem was that I often found myself hitting one or no heads and wasting a card. It was excellent for using Junk Arm to find a basic mid-game but was too unreliable. I realised that all I wanted on Turn 1 was basics and a single energy attachment and so was only really using a draw Supporter for basics and occasionally energy.
I switched to Pokémon Collector and now my deck is far more consistent in terms of basics (though it does mean energy is sometimes harder to come by without a T1 draw Supporter due to using Collector).
I love Pokémon Catcher, if only to stop the multitude of people complaining about losses incurred that would have been avoided “if only I had hits heads on Reversal”. That’s why I always ran 2 Reversal and 1 Pokemon Circulator (your opponent chooses which of his benched Pokémon to switch with the active) as I could always get rid of the active if I wasn’t too fussy about who replaced him.
This card had great benefits but at a high price. David Cohen chose not to run this and instead made a hard-hitting, consistent deck that could beat anything thrown at it. He won Worlds. Of course Catcher makes this a moot point now but it does serve as a good example of a card where people introduced a HUGE element of luck and gambling into their deck. If you played enough games it would eventually backfire.
This is a card that saw a LOT of play last season but has seemed to drop in popularity. Again, like Catcher, it offers big rewards but with a big risk element. If you hit heads you get to pick up a Pokémon and return it to your hand. This can heal a Pokémon completely, save a fragile Pokémon from being an easy prize and even re-use energy.
Quite frankly, it’s awesome. But the fact remains that you can easily hit multiple tails. Rumour has it that the inventor of Gyarados would have beaten Steven Silvestro in the top-8 game of worlds in 2009 had he hit one of three heads of Super Scoop Up. He didn’t.
There are 2 ways to increase the effectiveness of this. The first is to run multiples of both this and Junk Arm, allowing for more tries and hence, more chance of success. This will not guarantee success though. I am currently planning a deck with a heavy Super Scoop Up line. I am also running Switch and Seeker.
Of course the ideal is to hit heads on every Scoop but Switching to the bench and using Seeker is a GUARANTEED way to save that Pokémon (assuming you’re not trainer-locked) and could even have some nice advantages as your opponent will have to pick up a benched Pokémon.
Jirachi UL/CL
Jirachi allows you to flip 3 coins when you play him down and attach one Psychic energy from the discard to him for every heads. He also has a nice attack allowing you to devolve (return the highest evolution to your opponent’s hand) as many of your opponent’s Pokémon as you have Psychic Energy attached to Jirachi. Of course, flipping 1 out of 3 heads is not a guarantee. It is likely. It is probable. It is not guaranteed.
Jirachi’s usefulness has diminished somewhat with the rise of Catcher limiting the use of Kingdra Prime as a tech but he still has a role to play and with a slight drop in popularity can be a nice surprise tech. He also has the advantage of being able to be powered up and used in one turn, meaning he can be a complete surprise.
So what happens if we hit 3 tails? If it’s a vital, game-winning strategy you should have a back-up, otherwise you will (sooner or later) be left saying “I would have won if I hadn’t hit 3 tails on Jirachi”. This is where Super Scoop-Up and Seeker come in (he’ll be benched so Seeker will work fine). If it’s that important and that game-winning a play, you should be prepared for the worst, just in case.
Deck Building / Consistency
This is the number one way to reduce luck in your game and, if you can become good at it, will make you a better player at the same time. If you can make a consistent deck then you will drastically reduce the amount of bad luck you face. If you run a one-of teach (E.g. 1-0-1 Kingdra line) then the chances are that sooner or later it will be prized. If it’s that important, you need to run a thicker line.
In my decks recently I have started to run a single Cleffa in very consistent decks. I rarely use the Cleffa but it’s there if I need it. Occasionally it will be prized but the chances of it being prized and that game being one where I really need Cleffa are very small so I find running one is fine. Running 2 will also increase your risk of being donked (more on that later).
One of the biggest questions you need to answer is: What do I really need 4 of in my deck? Generally it will be (i) Pokémon Collector (ii) Pokémon Communication (Unless your deck is all basics) and (iii) Rare Candy (if you run Stage 2 Pokémon). This will make your deck very consistent. Do not be tempted to drop these numbers to add in tech options, it will almost certainly end badly.
You should also consider 4 of any big attackers, or at least their basics. For instance, in a Megajudge deck you should run a 4-3 Yanmega and 4 Magnemite (I’ll leave the exact line up to you). With Pokémon catcher running around you need the protection of having an extra basic. You also need Yanmega and Magnezone running quickly and the quicker you get the basics, the quicker you get the evolutions, hence the need to run the maximum 4 you’re allowed.
Other than draw Supporters you will rarely need 4 of anything else. Now I’m sure people will read this and have cards that they run 4 of and that’s awesome but I’m assuming these are well-tested decks that have a good reason for running 4 of a card. Good on ya.
Cards like Pokémon Catcher though should rarely every been run as a 4-of. In fact when making decks I almost always add in 4 Catcher but when I need to boost consistency that 4th Catcher is the first thing to go. Yes it’s nice to have 4 Catcher and of course it will be a huge advantage to have it early (which is more likely when running 4) but if your deck doesn’t get up and running quickly then no amount of Catchers will win you the game.
Draw Supporters / Draw Engine
Miss you. :'(
One of my least favourite things about this format (and don’t get me wrong, I love this format!) is the need for a silly amount of draw Supporters. Most decks need at least 8 draw Supporters to run smoothly, many a great deal more than that, and that’s on top of the 4 Collector. In the olden days we had Uxie and Claydol and Unown R and a mere Collector could lead to a mass of drawn cards. Alas, no more.
Now here’s where consistency comes in; you need them. I have been toying around with Donphan / Weavile and even with 9 draw Supporters it sometimes stutters. The only really consistent build I came up with had a whopping 12 draw Supporters and this meant I was down to 3 Catcher, 2 PlusPower and 2 Junk Arm, as well as a single Ruins of Alph.
BUT, and here’s the key point: the deck ran nicely. Yes I had to sacrifice my nicer techier options but I had the deck running nicely and I got some good wins. The deck was too one-dimensional to be truly great but it did teach me a valuable lesson about deck building: You can have the most options ever in a deck but if you can’t get them out you won’t win much. Nobody wants to cut tech cards for draw Supporters but sometimes there’s no other option.
Well, there are two other options. Now I know there are “technically” other options but I am choosing to ignore them now. You have Magnezone Prime and Ninetales HS/CL. For Ninetales you need to run Fire Energy but if you do he can be a fantastic draw and as your standard 4 Collector / 4 Communication can happily get him out nice and quickly it means you can run less draw Supporters without sacrificing consistency. Hurrah!
Now Ninetales only really serves a purpose in Reshiboar and Reshiphlosion but I still think he’s relevant. I went through a phase, like most other people, of thinking he would be useless when Catcher came out but he’s actually pretty handy. You see, your opponent can choose to Catcher him up and take a prize but to do so he has to avoid taking out a potential Emboar or Typhlosion.
They can go for the Emboar or Typhlosion but then they have the Ninetales to draw cards and get an Emboar or Typhlosion out. It makes for a very interesting deck to play against. The only sure-fire way to make the right choice is to see your opponent’s hand and often this will not be possible.
The other option is Magnezone but again he is only really good in a couple of decks, namely Megajudge and Magneboar. He has the potential to be a very nice tech (again, easily produced with the standard 4 Collector, 4 Communication, 4 Rare Candy) but he takes up a LOT of space and with a HUGE retreat cost he is (unfortunately) easy Catcher bait. He also has a weakness to Donphan, which is pretty bad right now.
Unfortunately we’re currently in a position where you either have Magnezone, Ninetales or draw Supporters. This actually puts a lot of skill back into Deck building because “Collector for X, Y and Uxie, Set-up for 6” is no longer an option. The very best way to build consistency into your decks is through draw Supporters and draw engines and if you get it wrong you will very often be beaten before you even get set up.
Donks!
Remember when everybody said that with Sableye and Crobat G and Uxie and all out of this format that Donks would no longer be a problem? Well, like Arnie in Commando, they lied!
The number one way to reduce donks in this format is exactly the same as last format: Add more basics. Let’s take Magneboar as an example. All you really need are 4 Magnemite, 4 Tepig and a Cleffa for consistency. That gives 9 basics, one of which is a baby. This is bad and will lead to too many lone baby starts. So what do we do? Add Reshiram! He is a basic that fits into the deck nicely, will make a good addition and has a high HP.
My point here is similar to my point above about draw Supporters: You can have a fantastically teched-out deck with more options than Robbie Williams after a gig but if you get donked before you draw a card, you lose.
The baby debate I suppose fits in here as well. Babies get donked! Tyrogue is fantastic for donking Cleffas and he’s starting to become popular again. Reshiram, Bouffalant and Zekrom can donk babies with a PlusPower and Zorua and Minccino can with a flip. There are more. The lesson here is not to run too many babies. I personally would say that is you’re running 10 basics then there should be a maximum of one baby, raised to 2 where you have 12 basics. I think any more than that is potentially very bad.
Ross.dec has 30HP Solosis, Pichu and Cleffa along with 40HP Oddish BUT he runs a LOT of Pokémon so he can get away with it as he will most likely start with more than one Pokémon. Vileplume decks can also fall foul of this donking but as you would need to start with a lone Oddish AND go second AND your opponent run Tyrogue AND get him out AND have a PlusPower, you should be fine.
Donking is a problem. It will never go away. Most of the time donking is very unlucky due to starting a lone baby, going second and seeing your opponent with the resources to donk. This should be rare. If it’s happening too often then you’re running too many low HP Pokémon or too few basic pokemon.
Opening Flip
This is the other “luck” factor which is in vogue to rant about right now. The opening flip. Put simply if you run a very fast deck that relies on outspeeing your opponent and purely on that and you lose the opening flip then yeah, you will get unlucky but this is not really a format where you can run a deck like that.
The first way around it is very simple: Come from behind cards. Black Belt and Twins and both brilliant cards that allow an easy and unexpected KO or the searching of any 2 cards, helping you get set up and turning a losing position into a winning position.
It is also advisable here to run more basics (I.e. a 4-3 line of Yanmega) to allow for the fact that losing the opening flip will probably translate into losing the first prize, often on a basic you’ll be needing.
The other thing you should do is not completely run a deck relying on pure speed. Give yourself options in your deck and, most importantly, run a consistent deck. Many decks you’ll see at the moment, especially faster decks, will falter mid-game. Make a consistent enough deck (See above) and you can use this time to swoop in and take the game.
Match-Ups
This format got pretty brutal recently with the announcement of “Championship Points”. Basically these qualify you for Worlds and you get them for placing highly in tournaments (the bigger the tournament, the lower the places that get them and the more you get for winning). Gone are the days when an X-1 whiffing cut gave a good boost for your rating and job done. Now you need to be cutting. So I’ll make this simple: Don’t accept auto-losses!
Stage 1s have a HORRIBLE match-up with Gothitelle so make it fast enough to beat it or run Black Belt to OHKO a Gothitelle when you’re behind or run Xatu or Roserade or something to give you a game plan. Don’t “hope” that you’ll avoid your auto-loss and if you do, don’t go crying when you lose Championship Points because you were unprepared (is that too harsh?)
I have heard that the Canadian National champion got “nice matches” all the way through Nats, hence his victory with Zekrom. I don’t believe this for a second. I believe he read the metagame well and made a very consistent deck with enough options to deal with his supposed “auto losses”.
The chances of going through a whole tournament getting nice match-ups is almost nil so make sure you identify your weak matches in advance and plan for these with appropriate techs, or maybe even by making a consistent deck that run better than the competition.
It also goes without saying here that decks such as Megajudge and Stage 1s that have a lot of 50 / 50 match-ups become good plays here.
Playing
When it comes to playing you can also do a lot to decrease the amount of luck in your game. Firstly, and most simply, you can be familiar with your deck. You’re much less likely to make mistakes and much more likely to be able to play your way out of bad draws if you are familiar with your deck. This is really the key to stopping luck affecting your game.
For example, when playing Magneboar you must ALWAYS get a Magnezone out first. The sole exception being where you can get something out to win the game there and then (E.g. getting an Emboar so that you can load up Reshiram for the “Blue Flare” and win). Getting a Magnezone out allows you access to a draw engine and from there it’s much easier to draw what you need.
This also applies to deciding when to use Cleffa. You should never use Cleffa with a half-decent hand as you risk drawing into a worse hand. You SHOULD however have him in hand if possible because a turn or two down the line you may be desperate for draw. By all means Junk Arm or Communicate him away when you know you don’t need him anymore but Cleffa is a searchable out that can be used in an emergency. Don’t assume that you don’t need him and then damn your luck on turn 5 when your draw dries up.
Another thing to bear (boar) in mind is increasing your chances of drawing something good. For example: Say you have 2 Magnemites and a Tepig in your hand with a communication and Rare Candy. By not benching the Tepig you can (almost) guarantee yourself a T2 Magnezone. Benching only one Magnemite puts him at danger of being killed and benching the Tepig leaves you hoping for a Magnezone or other Pokémon (or draw Supporter) to get that T2 Magnezone.
Acquiring Cards
Not the best way to go.
Ok, so this isn’t really about playing but I think it’s worth a quick note. Buying packs sucks. Sorry. I know it’s fun and all but through Battle Roads and Nationals prizes and promo packs (blister packs and the such) I got 38 packs of Black and White earlier in the year. I pulled NO full arts, NO Ability Emboars and generally very little good stuff.
This didn’t matter though as I bought a box and traded well when the set came out and already had everything I needed. When a new set comes out I go to 2 Prerelease (because they’re well fun) and then buy a box. Boxes are not 36 random boosters; they have a set amount of good stuff. There are exceptions but generally every box of Emerging Powers contained one of each full art and 2-3 Catchers. Buying 36 packs could be good or bad and so, as this is an article about reducing luck, I would advise against it.
After a box and a couple pre-releases it should be easy to then trade for everything you need or buy singles online. I know you can just buy singles but that can actually get very expensive and tiresome. I will however note here that when I buy cards it is for competitive play but also to complete each set.
Conclusion
So, what does luck have to do with it? In my eyes, very little. As I said above, the best players win year on year because they’re better. We all know people that curse their luck very often and the fact of the matter is their deck isn’t good enough. Either it’s not consistent enough or there’s too many babies or too few basics or some other problem.
We all have bad luck now and again but if it’s happening more than occasionally then you need to face facts that you’re the architect of your own poor luck. Sorry.
P.S. I have made myself a Twitter account with to share random PokemonTCG thoughts. My name is thewossy. So yeah, please follow me so I can at least pretend that someone reads my ramblings!
